The "quota system", known as China's most difficult renewable energy policy, finally landed after the end of the National Two Sessions in 2018.
On March 30, the solicitation of opinions on the renewable energy quota system has ended. A week ago, the National Energy Administration issued the "Renewable Energy Power Quotas and Assessment Measures (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Comments"), requiring the consumption of renewable energy power as a binding indicator, and annual The renewable energy quotas of the provincial governments are monitored, evaluated and assessed. The indicator setting combines the renewable energy resources, total power consumption, national energy planning and annual construction plan of each province, and the construction of major renewable energy bases across the country. In the published 2018 renewable energy power quota indicators, there are big differences between different regions, Shandong is 8.5%, Sichuan is the highest 91%; among the non-hydro renewable energy power quota indicators, the lowest is 3% in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Chongqing , Ningxia and Qinghai have the highest rate of 21%.
"The implementation of the two-level indicators of total and non-hydropower quotas this time, judging from the situation of each province, it is estimated that the difficulty is not great." Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, was interviewed by a reporter from China Business News. Said that the implementation of the quota system will help solve the consumption dilemma of renewable energy.
Changes in the responsible subject
At the end of 2017, China's installed renewable energy capacity was 650 million kilowatts, accounting for 36.6% of the total installed capacity of power generation, and the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaics all ranked first in the world.
In the 2018 group proposal of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, it is mentioned that due to the lack of a supporting assessment mechanism, the country’s previously announced renewable energy power ratio and renewable energy consumption policies have not been effectively implemented locally, resulting in waste water for renewable energy development. The problem of abandoning wind and light is difficult to solve.
As of the end of 2017, China's cumulative installed wind power capacity reached 164 GW and photovoltaic installed capacity reached 130 GW, the year when the new photovoltaic capacity exceeded the thermal power capacity (46 GW) for the first time. In 2017, China’s wind power and photovoltaic power curtailment rates were 12% and 6%, respectively. The National Energy Administration estimated that the total curtailment of wind power and photovoltaic power in China in 2017 was 49.2 TWh. Calculated in accordance with the lowest standard of renewable energy benchmark on-grid tariffs, this means that owners of renewable energy power generation assets have lost at least 30.7 billion yuan (approximately US$4.7 billion) due to power cuts.
At the two sessions just past, representatives of the energy industry including WISCO, Chairman of Goldwind, Zhang Lei, founder and CEO of Envision Energy, and Nan Cunhui, Chairman of Chint Group, all expressed their calls for the implementation of the quota system as soon as possible.
After ten years of postponement, this policy, which has been highly anticipated by new energy companies, has finally revealed the "true face of Lushan".
According to the "Draft for Opinions", the implementation entities that undertake the obligations of renewable energy power quotas are provincial power companies, local power grid companies, other various power distribution and sales companies (including social capital investment incremental power distribution grid companies), and self-owned Industrial enterprises of standby power plants, direct purchase users participating in power market transactions, etc. Various market entities in the same provincial-level region shall bear the same quota quota and participate fairly in renewable energy power market transactions. Government departments, power generation companies and power users are the guarantee parties for the implementation of the quota system.
"Compared with the previous design, the biggest change this time is to shift the main body of the quota system from the power generation side to the demand side." A scholar from the National Development and Reform Commission told reporters that in 2011, the National Energy Administration had a discussion draft that suggested The main responsibility of the renewable energy quota system is the power generation company with an installed capacity of more than 5 million kilowatts. Later, it is also clear that the power company must bear 15% of the non-aqueous renewable energy power generation target. However, if the responsibilities of the quota system are focused on power generation companies, "reconstruction and light use" will not help solve the consumption problem.
The scholar believes that due to the differences in the distribution of resources between provinces and the development of resources by power generation companies, imposing constraints on renewable energy generation obligations will not only push up the cost of thermal power companies, but also not conform to the laws of marketization. At present, the direct electricity transaction of the electricity reform also pays more attention to the demand side response, guiding the main body of the quota system to the user side and the demand side, which in turn stimulates the development of the power generation side.
Regarding the formulation of quotas that are of concern to all parties, hydropower resources are not excluded from renewable energy power this time. Instead, the quotas are divided into "renewable energy total power quota" and "non-hydropower renewable energy power quota", including offshore Wind power, onshore wind power, biomass power generation, solar photovoltaic power generation, solar thermal power generation, municipal solid waste power generation, geothermal power generation, ocean power generation, etc.
According to the announced 2018 total quota indicators, non-hydropower quota indicators and 2020 expected indicators, each province is quite different, and it is no longer the four-tier division of 2% to 10% previously planned. On the whole, provinces rich in renewable energy have high quotas, and vice versa.
This time, the decentralization of power was clearly delegated to the provincial governments to formulate policies and measures. The National Energy Administration has also made supplementary regulations on cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission channels, power market transactions, and increased consumption of self-owned power plants.
Li Xiaoyang, a Chinese market analyst at MAKE, a Danish wind energy consultancy, believes that the implementation of the quota system will help solve the problem of abandoning the stock and abandoning solar energy, and will have a limited impact on the new installed capacity of renewable energy.
Obscure certificate transaction mechanism
It is also worth noting that this time it is also mentioned that the renewable energy power certificate system should be implemented as a vehicle for recording and measuring the production, actual consumption and transaction of renewable energy power, and used to monitor and assess the completion of renewable energy power quota indicators. .
The producer of renewable energy electricity is issued according to the standard of one certificate for the electricity settlement of 1 MWh (that is, 10 million hours), and the self-generated electricity is issued according to the amount of electricity generated. Certificate transactions can be conducted between market entities to complete quota indicators, and the certificate price is formed by market transactions. However, market entities that have not completed the quota must complete the quota by purchasing a substitute certificate from the power grid company in the region where the substitute certificate is priced by the provincial power grid company based on the cost of consumption.
"This certificate transaction is different from the previous green certificate transaction expected by the market." Li Xiaoyang said that with the development of renewable energy, China has long been facing adjustments in the "fixed electricity price system" implemented by subsidizing renewable energy electricity prices. Previously, the government proposed that it hoped to resolve the issue of the government’s withdrawal of renewable energy subsidies through a market-based mechanism through the "quota system + green power certificate (hereinafter referred to as green certificate) trading system". However, the document mentioned in this document is the quota certificate transaction, and the subsidy of renewable energy companies has not stopped in the short term.
Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a photovoltaic forum held in mid-March that the renewable energy subsidy gap has been increasing this year alone. By the end of 2017, the renewable energy subsidy gap was 110 billion yuan, causing serious " Triangular debt".
"The state's subsidies for renewable energy are gradually decreasing, and cancellation will be the general trend." Lin Boqiang believes that the combination of the quota system and the compulsory certificate transaction will have practical results, instead of being reduced to a "show" like the previous voluntary green certificate transaction.
Starting from July 2017, power generation companies that have obtained green certificates can list and trade green certificates on the national green certificate platform. Data show that as of March this year, the National Renewable Energy Information Management Center has issued approximately 17.6 million green certificates. In the past 9 months, only over 27,000 copies have been sold, and only 10 million yuan has been raised, accounting for about 0.15% of the issued amount.
"The trading and evaluation methods of quota system certificates in the "Draft for Comments" are not yet clear." In Li Xiaoyang's view, the final issuance and evaluation of certificates is of great significance to the implementation and supervision of quota targets. It is expected that after the official document is announced, Corresponding supporting documents will also be issued for clarity.
In fact, compared with the previous concept of incorporating the renewable energy quota system into the performance evaluation of local governments, the assessment of local governments by this quota system is not as strict as expected: areas that fail to achieve the target will reduce the suspension and reduce fossil energy in the region. Power construction, cancellation of application for demonstration project qualifications, and limited approval of high-energy industrial projects.
On the other hand, market entities that have not fulfilled the target will be reduced their market transaction electricity for the next year or disqualified for electricity trading; companies that refuse to fulfill the quota will be listed as bad credit records and be punished jointly.
Lin Boqiang believes that the renewable energy quota system policy includes implementation, supervision, and follow-up evaluation. Only a small step has been taken now with the release of the draft opinion.
It is reported that the "Implementation Measures for the Division of Distribution Areas for Incremental Distribution Business (Trial)", "Guiding Opinions on Improving Power System Regulation Capability", "Specific Construction and Operation Special Treatment Plan for Standardized Construction and Operation of Coal-Fired Captive Power Plants" and other supporting documents for power reform are also Released in the near future.
After completing the first special reform of transmission and distribution prices, the current power reform is moving towards a new tough area: paying more attention to the development of green and low-carbon power, giving play to market mechanisms, and improving the efficiency of the power energy system. The "dilemma" and "difficulties" faced by reforms.